Afghanistan’s Canal Project Raises Concerns Across Central Asia
A new canal project in Afghanistan, called the Qosh Tepa Canal, is creating serious worries for nearby countries, especially Uzbekistan. The Taliban-led Afghan government is building this massive canal to support its own farming needs. It plans to take about 20% of the water from the Amu Darya River, one of Central Asia’s most important water sources.
This river is not just important to Afghanistan—it also flows into Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where it supports farming and provides drinking water. If this canal takes such a large amount of water, Uzbekistan could face a serious water shortage. The effects might reach Turkmenistan too, as it lies even further downstream.
At a recent climate meeting in Almaty, Kazakhstan, leaders and experts from Central Asia gathered to talk about this issue. One expert said the downsides of the canal would be much worse than any benefits it might bring to Afghanistan. The main worry is that the canal could greatly reduce the amount of water flowing into Uzbekistan, where it is badly needed.
Afghanistan’s Water Diversion Threatens Uzbekistan’s Farms
Uzbekistan is an agricultural country. That means a big part of its economy depends on growing crops like cotton and fruits, which need a lot of water. If less water flows into Uzbekistan, the farms in regions like Khorezm and Karakalpakstan will be hit the hardest. It is estimated that farmers in these areas might be forced to use 50% less water if the canal is completed.
Right now, public water supplies in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan cost between $1.20 and $1.60 per cubic meter. But experts believe the real value of water in this region is actually around $16 per cubic meter. If the canal takes away a big chunk of the river’s flow, this could cause a huge increase in water prices. This would make it even harder for farmers to keep their crops alive and could damage the economy.
Even though both countries are trying to save water through different efforts, there’s still no working plan that connects how water is used to how much it costs. This weak link makes it harder to manage the situation effectively.
Afghanistan’s Canal Faces Technical and Diplomatic Setbacks
The idea for the Qosh Tepa Canal isn’t new. It goes all the way back to the 1950s, when British engineers first suggested it. Since then, the project has passed through the hands of the Russians, the Americans, and now the Taliban. It was officially announced in 2022 by Afghanistan’s government and begins near the Balkh region in northern Afghanistan.
Afghanistan has said in the past that this project won’t hurt Uzbekistan, but that promise hasn’t eased concerns. The Taliban believes the canal will help its own farmers grow more crops, but experts warn that building the canal is only part of the challenge. The harder job is to build a proper irrigation system so the water doesn’t go to waste. Without such a system, up to 40% of the water could be lost, either through leaks or evaporation.
There’s also trouble with an artificial reservoir near the canal. It’s already facing damage due to water pressure and rising groundwater levels. This adds to the doubts about how well the project has been planned and whether it can really help Afghanistan without hurting its neighbors.
On the diplomatic front, things are tense. Uzbekistan is trying to open talks with the Taliban government, but progress is slow. Afghanistan has shown little interest in making agreements with other Central Asian countries about shared water use. Last year, the head of the Eurasian Development Bank warned that Central Asia is already facing a growing water shortage. If the canal is completed as planned, this problem will likely get much worse.
