Alaska, known for its breathtaking glaciers and icy landscapes, is facing a dramatic loss of its glaciers. A new global study shows that under the current climate change pledges made by countries, Alaska is on track to lose 69% of its glacier mass. This means almost two-thirds of Alaska’s glaciers could disappear over time.
Alaska has the third-largest glacier mass in the world, holding about 16,246 gigatons of ice. Only the Antarctic islands and northern Arctic Canada have more glacier mass. This makes the potential loss in Alaska especially significant, as it holds such a large portion of the world’s glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.
Glaciers are like frozen memories of the past, and they take a long time to respond to changes in the climate. Even if the world stopped warming today, glaciers would keep melting for hundreds or even thousands of years. They will keep losing mass until they reach a new balance. This happens when the ice gained in cold seasons matches the ice lost in warm seasons. If global warming is limited to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels, Alaska’s glaciers will reach this balance in about 330 years.
Rising Seas and Disappearing Habitats
The loss of glaciers is not just a problem for Alaska. As glaciers melt, the water they release flows into the ocean, causing sea levels to rise. The study found that if glaciers continue melting at the current rate, the world could see a nine-inch rise in sea levels. This could lead to more flooding in coastal cities and towns, damaging homes and roads, and making some areas unlivable.
Glaciers also support many unique plants and animals that depend on cold, icy environments to survive. As glaciers disappear, these habitats will shrink, and some species may be lost forever. This change can also lead to more natural hazards like landslides, avalanches, and floods, making certain areas more dangerous for people to live in.
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This study looks beyond 2100, unlike earlier studies. Scientists used models to predict when glaciers will reach balance. They examined 200,000 glaciers, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, to estimate how much they will melt under different temperatures. This is the first time such a detailed, long-term study has been done on glacier loss.
How Much Ice Will Be Left?
The study found that how much glacier mass Alaska loses depends on how much the Earth warms. Right now, the Earth’s temperature is about 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher than it was before the Industrial Revolution. At this level, Alaska would lose 37% of its glacier mass. If the planet warms by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, Alaska’s loss would rise to 41%. At 3.6 degrees, the loss would reach 58%. If the Earth continues on its current path, which would result in a 4.9-degree rise in temperature, Alaska would lose 69% of its glacier mass. At higher temperatures, the losses grow even larger: 71% at 5.4 degrees, and 80% at 7.2 degrees.
The pattern is similar for the rest of the world’s glaciers. Globally, glaciers would lose 39% at 2.1 degrees, 47% at 2.7, 63% at 3.6, 76% at 4.9, 77% at 5.4, and 86% at 7.2 degrees.
This study was the result of a major effort by 21 scientists from 10 countries who worked together for four years. They used eight different glacier models to make their predictions. Their work shows the true scale of glacier loss that is expected if countries stick to their current climate pledges. It is a clear warning that the glaciers we see today, especially in places like Alaska, may not be here for much longer.
