Emissions Look Good — But Only on the Surface of Fossil Fuel Accounting
Fossil fuel emissions in Australia may seem to have dropped significantly, but the picture is misleading. In 2024, the country reported its greenhouse gas emissions were 27% lower than in 2005. While that might sound like major progress, most of the reduction comes from an unexpected area: land use.
Australia includes the carbon absorbed by forests and vegetation in its emissions totals. These figures fall under the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. Right now, it’s the main reason the overall emissions numbers appear lower.
However, if you remove the LULUCF figures, emissions have only gone down by 3% since 2005. That’s a small drop in nearly 20 years. So, while the overall numbers look promising, they are heavily influenced by how we count land-based carbon absorption. That doesn’t reflect real cuts in pollution from cars, power plants, and industry.
Fossil Fuel Exports: Our Invisible Carbon Trail
Australia exports a lot of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas. These fuels are burned overseas, so the emissions are not counted in Australia’s official numbers. That’s because, under international rules, only domestic emissions count.
But these exported fossil fuels still pollute the planet. Experts say the emissions from Australia’s fossil fuel exports could be three times higher than those produced inside the country. And these export emissions are still rising.
Even though we don’t burn these fuels at home, we do emit pollution while digging them up. This type of pollution is called “fugitive emissions.” These are the leaks and releases that happen during mining, storage, and transport.
In 2024, fugitive emissions made up 10.6% of Australia’s total pollution. That’s more than the entire industrial process sector, which only made up 6.8%. Worse still, fugitive emissions might be underreported. Because they’re hard to measure, most numbers are just estimates, not exact figures.
At the same time, new fossil fuel projects are being approved. These are mostly for export. They could make emissions go even higher in the coming years.
Renewable Energy Gains Are Real But Small
The good news is that Australia is cutting emissions in the electricity sector. Power from coal is being replaced by renewable energy from solar and wind. Compared to 2005, emissions from electricity are now 23.7% lower.
But the electricity sector is just one part of the problem. The drop is not large enough to balance out emissions from other areas. Even changes in hydroelectric power in Tasmania can shift the yearly results.
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Australia’s electricity grid will need to grow much larger. Experts believe we will need up to three times the current electricity supply by 2050. That’s just to meet our local energy needs. If we want to make clean products like green steel or hydrogen fuels, we’ll need even more.
Making Things Without Fossil Fuels Is Harder Than It Seems
Fossil fuels are everywhere. They don’t just power our cars and heat our homes. They also help make roads, buildings, and even medicine. In fact, about 13% of fossil fuels are used to make products, not burned for energy.
There are cleaner ways to make these materials. For example, we can use electricity to split water into hydrogen. This clean hydrogen can help make things like steel, fertilizer, and even green fuels for planes.
But this technology uses a lot of energy and is still very expensive. That’s why some projects have been paused or delayed. Many people talk about using green hydrogen for export or storage. But it’s also a key to cleaning up industries that use fossil fuels today.
If Australia used clean energy to make finished goods here — like iron instead of iron ore — it could cut emissions and create more jobs. Right now, we mostly export raw materials, which leads to more pollution overseas and less value at home.
In 2024, emissions from heavy industry did go down. But this was not because of clean energy. It happened because some manufacturing declined. While fossil fuel extraction has grown, local factories and industrial production have fallen.
This means Australia still depends on polluting exports while losing clean industry opportunities. As long as this continues, emissions will stay high — both here and abroad. And no amount of trees can make up for that.
