Farmlands in China feed more people than those of any other country on Earth, yet they also generate a large share of the nation’s carbon emissions. For many years, this reality posed a difficult question: how can China safeguard food security while at the same time cutting emissions that intensify climate change?
However, extensive provincial data from 2005 to 2021 now provide a clear answer. Rather than relying on a single reform, China has reduced agricultural carbon intensity through dual-scale agricultural management. This approach combines larger farmland operations with shared agricultural services. Together, these two forces are transforming how crops are produced, how resources are allocated, and how much carbon agriculture releases into the atmosphere.
The Challenge: Feeding China Without Heating the Planet
China faces a distinct agricultural challenge. It must feed a very large population while relying on limited farmland and water resources per person. To meet food demand, farmers have traditionally depended on intensive inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, diesel fuel, and large-scale irrigation. While these inputs increase crop yields, they also drive up greenhouse gas emissions.
As a result, agriculture contributes a substantial share of China’s total carbon emissions. These emissions come from multiple sources, including fertilizer and pesticide use, agricultural plastic film, fuel consumed by machinery, electricity used for irrigation, soil tillage, and methane released from rice cultivation. When researchers compare these emissions with the value of farm output, they define the result as agricultural carbon emission intensity, or ACEI.
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From 2005 to 2021, China recorded a sharp decline in ACEI. During the same period, two major structural changes reshaped rural agriculture.
First, farmland management shifted toward larger operational scales. Farmers increasingly transferred or combined small and scattered plots, which allowed fewer workers to manage larger areas of land. This process, known as farmland-scale management, transformed how land resources were organized and used.
Second, agricultural services expanded rapidly. Rather than handling every task themselves, farmers began to rely on specialized service providers for plowing, planting, harvesting, soil testing, irrigation, and pest control. This expansion of professional support became known as service-scale management.
Importantly, these two changes developed together rather than in isolation. As farmland-scale management expanded, demand for professional services increased. As service-scale management improved, farmers found it easier to manage larger areas of land. Together, these shifts reshaped agricultural production and reduced carbon intensity in measurable ways.
Farmland-scale management centers on land use. It measures how much cultivated land each agricultural worker manages. When farmers operate larger areas, they organize production more efficiently. They apply water, fertilizer, and chemicals with greater precision. As waste declines, pollution levels also fall.
In contrast, service-scale management centers on agricultural services. It reflects the size and reach of the agricultural service sector, including machinery services and technical support. These services deliver modern equipment and professional expertise to farms of all sizes. Even small farmers can access advanced technology without purchasing costly machinery.
Both approaches seek to modernize agriculture. When combined, they form a dual-scale management system that protects food production while reducing carbon emissions per unit of agricultural output.
How Dual-Scale Management Reduces Agricultural Carbon Emissions
Data from 30 Chinese provinces over a 17-year period reveal a clear and consistent pattern. As farmland-scale management expanded, agricultural carbon emission intensity declined. At the same time, as service-scale management grew, carbon intensity also fell. These trends remained stable across regions and years.
Individually, each approach contributed to emission reduction. However, their strongest impact emerged when they operated together.
Larger farmland operations make it easier for farmers to adopt modern technology. Machines work more efficiently on bigger, consolidated plots. Farmers plant and harvest crops on time and apply fertilizer and water with greater precision. As a result, they reduce unnecessary inputs and cut carbon emissions.
At the same time, service-scale management delivers professional expertise and advanced equipment directly to farms. Service providers supply soil testing, formula-based fertilization, smart irrigation systems, and modern harvesting techniques. These services limit the overuse of chemicals and energy. Moreover, they improve crop yields, which lowers emissions per unit of output.
When landscape and service scale interact, they create a powerful synergistic effect. Larger farms generate stronger demand for professional agricultural services. In turn, high-quality services make it easier for farmers to manage larger areas of land. This cycle of mutual reinforcement significantly strengthens emission reduction.
The data further show that at very low levels of farmland scale or service scale, the two approaches can act as substitutes. In such cases, farmers often choose between expanding land or purchasing services. However, once operations reach a certain scale, this relationship shifts. Beyond that point, farmland expansion and service expansion begin to support each other, and carbon intensity declines more rapidly.
Three key mechanisms explain how this synergy operates.
First, industrial agglomeration plays a central role. As agriculture becomes more organized and service-oriented, production activities cluster geographically. Input suppliers, processing firms, logistics companies, and service providers gather around major farming areas. This concentration improves efficiency, speeds up resource flows, and facilitates knowledge sharing. Consequently, production costs fall, and emissions per unit of output decline.
Second, technological progress accelerates emission reduction. Larger farms and professional service providers adopt advanced machinery and low-carbon technologies more readily. As these technologies spread, productivity rises and energy use per unit of output falls. The data clearly show that both farmland-scale and service-scale management strongly promote agricultural technological progress, which directly reduces carbon intensity.
Third, machinery services contribute significantly to lower emissions. Instead of individual farmers owning and maintaining equipment, specialized service organizations operate modern machinery. These machines work more efficiently and remain in use for longer periods. As fuel consumption per hectare decreases and idle capacity shrinks, overall emissions fall.
Together, these mechanisms reinforce one another. Industrial clustering supports technology adoption. Technological progress increases the value and efficiency of machinery services. Machinery services, in turn, make large-scale farming more practical and effective. The combined result is an agricultural system that produces more food while emitting less carbon per unit of value.
From 2005 to 2021, farmland scale expanded steadily across China, while service-scale management grew at an even faster pace. During the same period, agricultural carbon emission intensity declined at both national and provincial levels. Provinces with high emission intensity gradually disappeared, while low-emission regions became increasingly common.
This transformation did not happen by chance. Instead, it reflected deliberate and sustained changes in how agriculture was organized, supported, and managed across China.
What the Data Reveal Across Regions and Farming Conditions in China
The data clearly show that dual-scale management does not affect every part of China in the same way. Instead, regional conditions shape how strongly farmland scale and service scale reduce agricultural carbon intensity. Differences in food roles, mechanization levels, and geography all play a decisive role.
First, in regions that balance food production and food consumption, farmland-scale management delivers the strongest reduction in carbon intensity. These areas typically consist of highly fragmented farmland. However, when farmers consolidate plots, they manage land more efficiently. As a result, they use fertilizer and pesticides more precisely, reduce unnecessary inputs, and cut waste. Consequently, carbon emissions fall at a faster pace.
Meanwhile, in major food sales regions, service-scale management plays a more dominant role. These regions rely heavily on smooth logistics, mechanized farming, and professional agricultural services. When service-scale management expands, farmers gain access to advanced techniques and equipment. This improves operational precision, reduces duplicate inputs, and lowers overall emissions.
In addition, the level of agricultural mechanization significantly influences outcomes. In highly mechanized areas, both farmland-scale and service-scale management produce stronger emission-reduction effects. Machinery enhances the advantages of scale and specialization. Therefore, when modern technology aligns with organized farm management, carbon intensity declines more rapidly.
Geography further shapes these results.
In eastern China, farmland-scale management shows a particularly strong connection to lower carbon intensity. The region benefits from higher land productivity and more developed infrastructure. Because of this, larger farming operations can adopt advanced technologies and efficient practices more quickly, leading to sharper emission reductions.
In contrast, central China shows a stronger response to service-scale management. As a major grain-producing region, it has received sustained policy support for agricultural services. By expanding service-scale management, the region improves production efficiency and reduces emissions without relying heavily on large-scale land consolidation.
At the same time, western China demonstrates the combined strength of both approaches. Although the region has abundant land resources, natural and geographical constraints limit efficiency. Organized large-scale farming, together with shared agricultural services, helps overcome these barriers. As a result, farmers reduce inefficient input use and achieve meaningful declines in carbon intensity.
Across all regions, one pattern remains consistent. When farmland-scale management and service-scale management grow together, agricultural carbon emission intensity declines more steadily and more deeply.
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Beyond scale and services, the data also highlight the importance of supporting conditions. Strong environmental regulation reduces emissions by encouraging cleaner production practices. Higher innovation capacity speeds up the spread of low-carbon technologies. In addition, greater rural human capital plays a key role, as better-educated farmers more readily adopt environmentally friendly methods.
However, the data also reveal an important caution. Financial support for agriculture can increase emissions if it encourages excessive use of fertilizers and other inputs without efficiency safeguards. This underscores the need to align agricultural funding with low-carbon objectives.
Throughout the 2005–2021 period, China’s agricultural system steadily shifted toward larger, more organized, and more service-oriented operations. Importantly, this transformation did not weaken food production. Instead, it raised efficiency and reduced emissions per unit of output.
Overall, the evidence shows that agricultural carbon reduction in China does not stem from a single policy or technology. Rather, it results from a structural transformation in how farming operates at scale. At the heart of this transformation lies dual-scale agricultural management, which combines land consolidation with professional services to drive sustained reductions in carbon intensity.
