Carbon emissions are no longer rising automatically as economies grow, according to a major new study marking 10 years since the Paris climate agreement. For decades, countries assumed that economic progress would always lead to higher pollution. But this connection is now breaking in most parts of the world.
A global turning point in the climate fight
Researchers found that many nations are proving it is possible to grow stronger economies while polluting less. This change has sped up since 2015 and now reaches almost every major region of the world. The findings highlight how strong climate policies, cleaner energy, and smarter technologies are helping countries move away from fossil fuels.
The study examined consumption-based emissions, which means the pollution created by everything a country uses, not just what it produces. It discovered that countries making up 92% of the world’s economy have now reduced the connection between economic growth and carbon emissions. This shift is known as “decoupling,” and it is becoming more common every year.
Many nations are growing while cutting carbon emissions
The study shows that decoupling is now normal across developed countries and is spreading quickly in major economies in the Global South. Countries representing almost half of the world’s GDP have already grown economically while cutting emissions. This includes nations across South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe that are steadily reducing their dependence on fossil fuels.
Some countries have achieved the strongest decoupling results. They expanded their economies at a healthy pace while bringing down carbon pollution through clean energy, efficiency measures, and modern infrastructure. Others have shown smaller but steady improvements, proving that progress is not limited to wealthy regions.
In total, 21 countries improved their decoupling performance in the past decade. Many of them increased industrial output, attracted investment, or boosted exports while keeping emissions under control. Another group of 22 countries managed to maintain decoupling before and after 2015, showing long-term climate progress. Their improvements continued even as global energy demand grew.
Not every country has stayed on track. A handful previously succeeded in cutting emissions while growing but have recently slipped back into fossil-fuel-driven growth. These cases underline the need for stable policies that continue through changes in government or economic pressure.
Still, the broader trend is clear: more countries than ever before are proving that economic success does not require higher carbon emissions.
A dramatic change in China and slowing global carbon emissions
One of the biggest shifts highlighted in the report comes from China. As the world’s largest emitter, China plays a major role in global climate efforts. China’s emissions rose 24% between 2015 and 2023, while its economy grew by over 50%. This shows China is reducing its reliance on coal and other fossil fuels while still expanding economically.
In the last 18 months, the country’s emissions have stopped rising and stayed almost flat. Analysts believe this could mark the beginning of a long-term change. The country is rapidly building solar farms, wind parks, and clean industries, which are helping to slow down pollution from coal.
Experts say that if China continues this shift, it will have a major effect on the global climate path. Since China accounts for such a large share of global emissions, its progress is seen as a sign that other countries may also be able to break the link between growth and pollution.
The report also shows that global emissions have been rising much more slowly since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. Before the agreement, annual emissions were growing by 18.4% per decade. After 2015, the growth rate dropped sharply to just 1.2%.
This slowdown may not be enough to fully stop warming, but it shows the world is moving in a different direction. Cleaner energy, electric vehicles, modern appliances, and stronger climate rules are all contributing to this shift.
International climate meetings have played a role in pushing this transition forward. By encouraging countries to reduce their dependence on coal, oil, and gas, these gatherings help set common global goals. Many governments and industries now see clean energy as a key part of economic growth, not a threat to it.
The Paris Agreement also encouraged nearly 200 countries to limit global heating to well below 2°C. That message changed long-term plans for energy production, transportation, and industry. Because of that, estimates for future global warming have fallen from around 4°C to 2.6°C by the end of the century.
The study stresses that even though progress is visible, emissions must fall faster to protect the planet. But the data shows the world is closer than ever to reaching the moment when global emissions stop rising completely. Many scientists say this turning point is essential for keeping global heating at safer levels.
Across the world, more countries are proving that economic growth and climate action can go hand in hand. The shift is underway, and for the first time, global data shows that the old pattern of “grow more, pollute more” is no longer the rule.