🕒 Last updated on September 5, 2025
Heavy rainfall drenches the Baja Peninsula and western Mexico
Just off the northwest coast of Mexico, Tropical Storm Lorena has been causing bands of intense rain to sweep throughout the area. The storm is currently meandering about 100 miles west of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. Even though all tropical storm warnings have expired, the system is still drenching communities along the Pacific coast with flooding rainfall.
Parts of western Mexico have already received dangerous downpours. In Los Cabos and other parts of the southern Baja Peninsula, outer rainbands have brought anywhere from 2 inches to more than 9 inches of rain. Roads in low-lying areas have been washed out, and swollen streams are making travel difficult. Flooding from these heavy showers could continue into the weekend, even though the storm’s center is staying offshore.
Residents are dealing with flash flooding in some neighborhoods as the storm continues to dump water across hillsides and valleys. With the ground already saturated from previous rainfall, more showers will likely worsen flooding in poorly drained spots. For families living near rivers or creeks, the runoff from these bursts of rain is proving challenging.
Lorena has not made landfall in Mexico, but its wide circulation has been enough to soak a large stretch of territory. Many coastal towns have experienced hours of steady rainfall as the system lingers offshore. The storm’s slow movement has allowed it to wring out a large amount of moisture over the same regions, raising the flooding risk.
U.S. Southwest impact less likely despite flood watches
While Mexico is dealing with flooding, the American Southwest is seeing a different picture. Some of the moisture from Lorena is drifting northeastward toward the United States, but the chances of meaningful rainfall are shrinking.
Earlier forecasts suggested the system could bring drought-relieving rain to Arizona, New Mexico, and even Southern California. However, updated projections now show the rain amounts will be lighter and less widespread than first thought.
Flood watches have been issued for parts of southeastern California and southern Arizona for the weekend, but the risk has gone down. Instead of widespread heavy rain, higher elevations in southern and central Arizona may only see up to an inch of rain. This may be enough to cause some localized flooding in canyons or desert washes, but it is not expected to spread across large areas.
In Texas, forecasters are monitoring a separate setup where Lorena’s leftover spin and moisture could combine with a stalling frontal boundary. This may create pockets of heavy rain in some parts of the state. However, these downpours will likely be hit or miss and tied more to local conditions than to Lorena itself.
For many communities in Arizona and New Mexico, this news is disappointing. Families and farmers had hoped the storm might help ease dry conditions. The Desert Southwest has been waiting for reliable rainfall, but Lorena appears to be turning away before it can deliver that relief.
Drought conditions remain across Arizona and New Mexico
The lessening rainfall chances are a setback for much of the Desert Southwest, where drought conditions have been holding on for months. Monsoon rains, which usually bring much-needed summer moisture, have been running behind schedule this year. That delay has left many areas especially dry.
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Right now, the entire state of Arizona is classified as being in drought. In New Mexico, about 70 percent of the state is facing drought conditions as well. Ranchers and farmers are dealing with parched soils and limited water supplies. Rivers and reservoirs are running low, and vegetation across the region shows signs of stress.
Rain from Lorena would have been valuable, even if only a few inches spread across the desert landscape. Moisture helps recharge groundwater and can temporarily ease the strain on crops and livestock. Without it, the drought will continue to grip the region.
Even small amounts of rain in higher elevations will not make much difference for the broader drought. Mountains can collect some runoff, but lower desert areas often miss out when storms curve away. That appears to be the case with Lorena, which is now sending most of its moisture away from Arizona and New Mexico.
Meanwhile, communities in northwestern Mexico are still dealing with soaking rains. The contrast shows how storms can bring too much water in one place while leaving another area dry. As Lorena remains offshore, it continues to drench Baja California and surrounding regions while the U.S. Southwest waits for a soaking that may not come.