The world’s attention has turned sharply toward Venezuela after President Donald Trump moved to strengthen U.S. control over the country’s vast oil reserves. His actions signal a major shift in global energy politics and a direct challenge to the growing push for climate action worldwide.
Trump argues that the global shift toward clean energy will not unfold the way many people expect. His administration is betting that oil, gas, and climate policy resistance will remain central to economic power for decades. Venezuela has become the testing ground for that gamble.
By supporting the removal of Venezuela’s sitting president, Nicolás Maduro, Trump opened the door for American companies to take a dominant role in the country’s energy industry. His Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said the oil would be sold directly by the U.S. government, describing the reserves as a massive source of national wealth.
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This decision places the United States further away from the growing climate partnership between China and Europe. While China continues expanding solar, electric vehicle, and battery exports, Washington is promoting long-term oil and liquefied natural gas deals.
Trump’s actions have reshaped diplomatic relationships. The United States now stands apart from many allies that prioritize climate commitments. Meanwhile, countries dependent on American energy supplies face growing pressure to align with Washington’s fossil fuel strategy.
Power Struggle in a Divided Energy World
Energy analysts and governments remain split on the future of global energy. Some believe the shift toward renewables is unstoppable because markets favor cleaner technology. Others argue oil and gas will dominate for decades, weakening the climate movement.
These two opposing visions now influence global policy decisions. China continues exporting electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, and wind equipment. The United States pushes nations to abandon strict climate targets and sign long-term contracts for fossil fuels.
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Europe finds itself stuck in the middle. Politically, European leaders support climate goals. Economically, Europe depends on China for green technology and the United States for liquefied natural gas after cutting off Russian supplies. This leaves the region with limited influence over the direction of the energy transition.
Kelly Sims Gallagher of Tufts University described the situation as a world split between two realities. That divide now defines international relations, with Venezuela at the center of the conflict.
Nicolás Galarza, a former Colombian environment official and adviser at the Loom think tank, said Venezuela’s oil industry would act as a “thermometer” for the energy transition. He explained that if large investments fail to materialize, it would signal that the climate transition is already reshaping global finance.
High Stakes for Global Markets and Energy Companies
Venezuela’s oil sector is severely neglected and requires tens of billions of dollars and many years to restore full production. Wright acknowledged that rebuilding would take at least a decade, followed by years to recover costs.
On Friday, top oil executives met Trump. Many expressed caution due to political uncertainty. Landon Derentz of the Atlantic Council said companies were considering fifty-year investments, not short-term gains.
Energy experts warn that long-term oil investments now carry serious risk. Electric vehicles are expected to outcompete combustion engines across global markets. If nations meet Paris Agreement goals, oil demand could fall by half between 2035 and 2050, according to Jon Ødegård Hansen of Rystad Energy. That makes massive spending in Venezuela highly uncertain for investors focused on the climate transition.
Joseph Majkut of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said companies must weigh declining demand as renewable technologies become more competitive and government climate policies grow stronger.
In November, the International Energy Agency said global oil demand could peak by 2030 and then slowly decline. At the same time, under pressure from Washington, the agency released another scenario showing oil demand continuing to rise through 2050. As a result, this projection now guides Trump’s Venezuela strategy and makes international climate cooperation more difficult.”
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Jason Bordoff of Columbia University noted that rising oil demand and delayed net-zero targets have influenced corporate investment decisions. He also explained that Venezuelan oil would not really change long-term demand, but it could still help as one of several supply choices.”
Political stability remains the main concern for American firms whose assets were previously seized by the Caracas government. Mark Menezes, now CEO of the U.S. Energy Association, said stability must be restored before large investments can proceed. With sanctions lifted, Venezuelan oil routed through the U.S. could divert discounted supplies away from Russia and China.
Geoffrey Pyatt of McLarty Associates explained that companies are already entering unstable regions such as Iraq and Libya in search of energy resources. He said Venezuela’s internal political conditions, not the climate transition itself, represent the greatest investment risk.
As Trump’s administration advances its energy agenda, Venezuela stands as a pivotal experiment in the global contest between fossil fuel dominance and the accelerating climate transformation.
